CBAM certificate costs

The financial effect of the CBAM runs through certificates. Their price is coupled to the EU Emissions Trading System. Sales do not begin immediately, yet the obligation applies retroactively to imports from 2026 onwards.

How the price is formed

A CBAM certificate is not priced freely. It derives from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). For 2026 the reference is the quarterly average of ETS auction prices; from 2027 the calculation moves to a weekly rhythm. In early 2026 the ETS sat around 75 euros per tonne of CO2 equivalent. That is a snapshot, not a promise. The figure moves with the market.

The timing gap

Here is the part that catches people. No certificates are sold in 2026. Sales begin on 1 February 2027. The first annual declaration and the first surrender of certificates is scheduled for 30 September 2027. And that first surrender covers your 2026 imports. The cost is retroactive. You import in 2026, you pay in 2027.

Why you should run the numbers now

A cost that lands in 2027 is easy to defer. That is the trap. The quantities and emission values that drive the bill are being created with every shipment today. Model the exposure now, while you can still influence the inputs, rather than discovering it the month before the first surrender.

Information on the CBAM is given to the best of our knowledge, as of June 2026, without guarantee. Dynamic values such as certificate prices, default values and deadlines can change. The applicable legal acts and the competent authorities are decisive. This article is not legal, tax or customs advice.